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Underseeded:
I consider these teams ‘underseeded’ in that I expect that they will perform better than their seed indicates in the NCAA tournament. This has less to do with their overall resume and more to do with how well they have been playing recently.
Team | KenPom | Net | Seed | Conf | Notes |
OK State | 30 | 29 | 4 | B12 | Hot! May be the hottest team in the country. |
Uconn | 16 | 30 | 7 | BE | Likely NBA lottery pick James Bouknight missed 8 games earlier in the season with an elbow injury. The Huskies are 10-3 with him in the lineup and have been clicking at the right time. |
Oregon | 36 | 34 | 7 | P12 | The Ducks got a boost with G Will Richardson back from injury in Feb. |
Loyola-Chi | 9 | 10 | 8 | MVC | Seeding Inequality |
Wisconsin | 10 | 27 | 9 | B1G | Seeding Inequality |
St Bona | 25 | 23 | 9 | A10 | Seeding Inequality |
Georgetown | 55 | 64 | 12 | BE | The Hoyas are on a roll, went 10-4 down the stretch & won the BET! |
Overseeded:
Note that I consider these teams ‘overseeded’ in terms of how I expect the to perform in the tournament. This is not a reflection of their resumes per se, though in some cases that became relevant.
Team | KenPom | Net | Seed | Conf | Notes |
Michigan | 2 | 4 | 1 | B1G | Key G Isiah Livers may be out. The Wolverines have also lost 3 of their last 5 games. Tough competition in the B1G but still not a good look. |
Kansas | 22 | 11 | 3 | B12 | Recent positive Covid test, unclear effect. |
Texas | 26 | 21 | 3 | B12 | Seeding Inequality |
WVU | 27 | 34 | 3 | B12 | Seeding Inequality |
Virgina | 11 | 12 | 4 | ACC | Recent positive Covid test, unclear effect. |
FSU | 15 | 24 | 4 | ACC | Waning down the stretch. FSU has lost 3 of 5 against mediocre teams. |
Nova | 12 | 16 | 5 | BE | Senior All-American PG Collin Gillespie is out of the tourney. Nova looked poor in his absence. G Justin Moore may also be out. |
Clemson | 42 | 41 | 7 | ACC | Seeding Inequality |
Wichita St. | 74 | 72 | 11 | AAC | Seeding Inequality |