Fantasy Football picks: Gabe Lloyd’s Faves & Fades – Week 1

The 2020 NFL Season is here.

Know what that means? Fantasy Football picks are here too!

As a three-time Fantasy Football champion on the way to (in DJ Khaled’s voice) another one, I am ready to share my expertise with you! Every week, check back here for Fantasy Football picks to help you thrive in your leagues.

Every week, you will get some insight on my “faves” and a recommendation on who to “fade”. Just remember, all the research and data in the world cannnot prepare you for the unexpected. You know, injuries, testing positive for COVID-19, suspensions – all that jazz. With that said, GOOD LUCK!

QUARTERBACKS

CAM NEWTON – No one knows what to expect from Cam Newton entering this season. However, you can expect mobile QB’s to give Miami fits. Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz averaged 27 Fantasy points against this unit. You could argue that he doesn’t have the chemistry down with his new wide-out core which could mean him making more plays with his feet. Miami also ranked 30th allowing 2.3 pass TD’s in their last nine games. – FAVE

MITCH TRUBISKY – This isn’t a name that most players would ever want to roster but hear me out. COVID-19 has canceled preseason games so going with familiarity could be the best-case scenario. He scored 19 and 24 fantasy points against Detroit’s 31st ranked (allows 290.6 pass yards) pass defense. Trubisky also averaged 9.5 pass yard per attempt and had no problem using his legs to make plays. Paying down for him could open tons of space to roster other studs. – FAVE

BAKER MAYFIELD – Mayfield averaged 15.5 fantasy points in two games against the Ravens last season. That’s hardly enough to win you any tournaments. Add in the fact that Baltimore allows fewer pass attempts at home and ranked 1st in TD’s allowed. If there is a spot for Mayfield to shine it would be passing to slot receivers which Baltimore is weakest. FADE

RUNNING BACKS

ANTONIO GIBSON – He could fly under the radar in week one due to all the stud backs in better match-ups. The case for Gibson is that his pricing is close to the minimum across DFS sites which is always a plus for running backs. The release of Adrian Peterson solidified him being on the field for a majority of the snaps no matter the game script. He should get around 15 touches and about 4 receptions in his debut. – FAVE

AARON JONES – Set it and forget it. Jones has owned the Vikings over the past 2 seasons. Jones topped the 100-yard rushing mark in both meetings and averaged 1.5 TD’s over that same span. Minnesota can’t stop the run to save their lives allowing 114.8 Rush yards over their last 9 games. CHALK CITY!! – FAVE

TODD GURLEY – Considering his massive usage and knee issues on the RAMS last season, it gives me pause to use him in week 1. Matt Ryan is going have a huge passing game against the hapless Seahawks secondary but I expect Julio, Ridley, and possibly Hurst to pick up that yardage. The classic case of too many mouths to feed. FADE

WIDE RECEIVERS

HENRY RUGGS III – Carolina has one the worst secondaries in the league allowing 179.6 Rec Yards to wide receivers. The loss of Tyrell Williams propelled the rookie to number 1 on the depth chart. His speed and 10.9 yards after the catch (YAC) is going to cause all sorts of problems for fellow rookie corner Troy Pride Jr. He is also on the cheap end and could provide tons of savings spend on stud running backs. – FAVE

DJ CHARK JR. – The Jags are in tank mode. As a result of the Fournette trade, they have very few options on offense. It’s reasonable to believe that the Jags will be playing from behind most of the season which means (20%) more passing. Chark averages 16% more fantasy points against division rivals as the Colts allow 1.4 rec TD’s to wide receivers. The volume will be there all season for Chark so fire him up. – FAVE

DEVANTE PARKER – Two words, Stephon Gilmore. Expect him to follow Parker all over the field forcing Fitzpatrick to key in more on Preston Williams. FADE

TIGHT ENDS

GEORGE KITTLE – Simply put, roster him everywhere no matter whether he is chalk or not. Attacking Arizona with tight ends is a thing in fantasy as they are ranked dead last to the position. Not to mention, they allow 12% more passing attempts when away and 59.4 Rec Yards to Tight Ends.

DST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – It is always a good idea to attack rookie Quarterbacks entering the league. Joe Burrow could very well have a decent game in his debut but you should definitely expect mistakes. Chris Harris, Joey Bosa, and Melvin Ingram are going to feast on the Bengals putrid offensive line.

Week 1 – Good Luck!

These Fantasy Football picks are designed to give you a leg on up on the field. Listing chalky plays is easy but can be detrimental if they bust. Upside and sometimes being contrarian is what you look for to win big. Lastly, chasing big millionaire GPP’s in hopes of winning the top prize is a pipe dream. Instead, focus on single entry tourneys and 50/50 games to keep your bankroll healthy. No harm in entering big GPPs but always temper expectations.


Baseline Times NFL – Week 1 Staff Picks

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